The Anatomy of a Slow Onset Disaster: Why Day Zero was Inevitable (2024)

Anthony R Turton

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In arid areas economic growth and thus political stability is firmly linked to water security. When gold was discovered in South Africa, it triggered a National Hydraulic Mission originally designed to pump water uphill, because the Witwatersrand Goldfields were at high altitude, in a grassland receiving insufficient rainfall to sustain trees. A hydraulic miracle occurred, based on human ingenuity, that saw the linking of rivers together. This process was accelerated in 1961 when South Africa achieved independence from Britain, but became a pariah state over its Apartheid policies. The Armed Struggle was born, running in parallel to the Second Hydraulic Mission. These two parallel processes evolved independently, until 1994 when a new constitution was implemented, ending the Armed Struggle. At that moment in time, these two parallel processes intersected, when revolutionary Cadres took control of complex institutional and engineering systems they had no experience of managing. An invisible battlefield emerged where science collided with ideology, and in the fervor of the moment, the latter won. The unintended consequences of the victory of ideology over science meant that the complexity of the South African water supply systems was simply never understood by the revolutionary leadership, who launched a new Paradigm of Redistribution, while ignoring the harsh reality that water is an economic enabler, but is inherently scarce in arid areas. The collapse of the South African water infrastructure was more-or-less guaranteed from the moment the first purges took place. The loss of technically competent people, opened the door to widespread plunder, as sophisticated engineering projects became a feeding trough for the politically connected elite. This slow onset disaster is now in an advanced stage, as the province of Gauteng is unable to meet demands for water directly attributable to the hijacking of engineering programs and the delay of Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands Project. This is exacerbated by the collapse of the sewage systems, another artifact of poor governance and oversight by a revolutionary cohort fueled by ideology, and inherently suspicious of the precautionary principles inherent to environmental science. Gauteng is home to over 40% of all citizens, producing over 60% of the GDP, but its 100% dependent on highly engineered water supply systems that are now unable to meet demands. The infrastructure is failing and the results of that process are not yet known, so the Platform for a Water Secure Gauteng (PWSG) has been created to unite all parties in a heroic attempt to prevent total system collapse. The PWSG can only succeed if the Government of National Unity (GNU) holds together, and the structural drivers of the failure are fully comprehended and adequately addressed. This paper is offered in a sincere attempt to assist that process of systemic renewal. Today we see major metropolitan areas, all centers of industrial activity, slowly collapsing because of water supply failures. What started in Cape Town in 2018, has now become a daily reality for Port Elizabeth, Durban, Johannesburg, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni. Day Zero now looms large over the South African economy, and investors and citizens alike are increasingly aware of the risk this brings into their daily lives. Failure is not an option, so now is the time to take a bite of the reality sandwich and truly understand the implications of pushing rivers around as if there are no consequences.

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The Anatomy of a Slow Onset Disaster: Why Day Zero was Inevitable (2024)
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