Tristan H. co*ckcroft
Aug 2, 2024, 12:35 AM
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
A day of debuts
Friday brings us four of the pitchers traded ahead of Tuesday's deadline making their debuts with their new teams. None has a high profile in fantasy baseball, but how should we view them both for their Friday matchups and going forward?
Yusei Kikuchi, acquired by the Houston Astros at a steep prospect price tag, is the most prominent of the four names, in large part because of said trade return. The ex-Toronto Blue Jays left-hander was in a bit of a slump for his former team. He has a 6.87 ERA in his past 12 starts, as he was done in by a .380 BABIP, 63.7% left-on-base and 13.8% home run-per-fly ball rates, all of which are substantially worse than his career numbers in those categories (.344/70.6%/10.7%). Kikuchi also had 26.4% strikeout and 31.1% whiff rates during that 12-start span, which ranked in the 75th and 89th percentiles among pitchers who worked as many as his 57 2/3 innings.
Considering those numbers as well as the Astros' frequency of extracting better-than-expected numbers from their pitchers, even in the post-Brent Strom era (he left the team following the 2021 season), Kikuchi should at least offer matchups value in fantasy (think top-50 starter cumulative value). On Friday, he'll face the Tampa Bay Rays, now a below-average-graded offense that's a good source of strikeouts for opposing starters. He's worth activating in most leagues for that matchup.
The St. Louis Cardinals will toss Erick Fedde directly into the middle of their longtime rivalry with the Chicago Cubs, starting the right-hander at Wrigley Field. Thanks in large part to the addition of a sweeper, as well as better control than the last time we saw him in the States (in 2022), Fedde has been much more effective against right-handed batters. He has a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his nine starts since the beginning of June, and his 2.94 ERA in 15 starts against winning teams reflects the fact he's not a matchups-conscious starter.
The Cubs are a middling matchup, so Fedde is a solid, albeit more deeper-mixed, fantasy option for Friday. That'll likely be his value going forward as well, though St. Louis was a good landing spot that could elevate him to top-50 positional value.
Frankie Montas will make his Milwaukee Brewers debut at Washington's Nationals Park, against a bottom-five offense in the Nationals. He's pitching four days later than initially scheduled, however, and his 4.80 ERA in 26 career starts on six-plus days' rest -- and four quality starts in 15 tries with that much rest since the start of 2020 -- is a point of concern. Montas also has a 6.41 ERA in his past eight starts, making him more of an NL-only option than one for mixed and/or standard leagues. He might be best used as a matchups option going forward, especially having moved from one hitting-friendly home environment to another.
The New York Mets added Paul Blackburn on Tuesday, and will start him on the road against the Los Angeles Angels three days later. He had made only his first start since returning from a stress reaction in his right foot, allowing four runs on five hits, two of them home runs, in five innings while facing precisely this same matchup. Blackburn's lengthy absence and shaky rehabilitation stint performance (eight earned runs in four innings across three appearances) make him a pitcher better left to the fantasy sidelines for evaluation. He'd most likely be a matchups type -- remember, the Mets' pitching-friendly home ballpark provides such advantages -- going forward.
Everything else you need to know for Friday
Underrated Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan draws fantasy baseball's dream matchup, a home start against the Chicago White Sox, a team against which he pitched quality starts in each of two prior meetings in 2024. For your projections purposes, bear in mind that the White Sox, post-trade deadline, grade as a 3% worse offensive team than the 29th-worst-ranked in the game (Miami Marlins). It's that dreamy a matchup going forward.
The Texas Rangers appear likely to start either Dane Dunning or Jose Urena, neither of whom has pitched effectively of late, and bear in mind that their 4.28 relief ERA behind those two ranks just 24th in the majors. That tilts things sharply in favor of the Boston Red Sox offense, one of the day's best stacks. Nos. 2 and 3 hitters and left-handers Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida are well worth the add and start, considering their .285/.347/.537 and .318/.387/.424 rates against right-handers.
The Baltimore Orioles are another offense to draw from, facing hittable Cleveland Guardians right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed 12 earned runs in his past two starts and has a 6.16 ERA in his past 10 turns. Orioles leadoff man Colton Cowser, 8-for-22 (.364 BA) with two home runs in five games since his installation into the role and a .380/.429/.660 hitter in 13 games since the All-Star break, remains available in more than 70% of leagues and is well worth the add and start.
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 48%) at Andrew Abbott
Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 10%) vs. Davis Martin
Byron Buxton (MIN, DH -- 30%) vs. Martin
Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 45%) vs. Paul Blackburn
Heliot Ramos (SF, LF -- 36%) at Abbott
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 42%) at Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Santana (MIN, 1B -- 17%) vs. Martin
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 69%) at Bryan Woo
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 53%) vs. Erick Fedde
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 80%) at Woo
Luis Robert Jr. (CHW, CF -- 78%) at Joe Ryan
Nico ho*rner (CHC, 2B -- 84%) vs. Fedde
Tyler O'Neill (BOS, LF -- 56%) at Dane Dunning
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 76%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Paul Goldschmidt (STL, 1B -- 75%) at Javier Assad
Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 55%) at Martin Perez
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B -- 97%) at Woo
